Whereas Meta is the subject of an unprecedented antitrust trial, the risk of losing WhatsApp and Instagram is reaching a critical stage. This article analyzes the background, key factors and possible consequences of this major threat, detailing what's at stake for users, companies in the digital marketing and investors. Recent developments offer a glimpse of the upheaval that the entire digital ecosystem could undergo.
The international tech world has been holding its breath since the opening of a landmark lawsuit pitting Meta against the Federal Trade Commission. The company, formerly named Facebook, is accused of having locked up the market with the acquisition of Instagram and WhatsApp in the 2010s, compromising competition and innovation. Understanding the implications of this scenario, which would profoundly challenge the current social networking landscape, is becoming fundamental for digital professionals and the thousands of brands that have established their presence on these platforms.
Meta faces an unprecedented threat: the history, stakes and weight of Instagram and WhatsApp
The Meta group, founded as Facebook in 2004, has risen to the top of the digital economy thanks to a fierce expansion strategy. Starting in 2012, the company extended its grip with the $1 billion buyout of Instagram, followed by the takeover of WhatsApp for a record $19 billion two years later. These operations marked a decisive turning point, drastically increasing the group's user base and sales.
Instagram, an image and video sharing platform, now attracts over two billion monthly active users. WhatsApp, meanwhile, will have nearly three billion users by 2025, consolidating its status as the dominant messaging app. These figures demonstrate the vital importance of these two entities to Meta. They are the main driving force behind Meta's global reach, and the source of a considerable proportion of its advertising revenues.
- Instagram seduces with its visual universe, its effectiveness in terms of engagement and its ecosystem of creators and influencers.
- WhatsApp has established itself as the preferred tool for secure instant communication, for both personal and professional exchanges.
The financial impact of these platforms for Meta is measured not only in terms of user volume, but also in terms of ultra-precise ad targeting capability. According to the latest estimates, almost 65 % of Meta's advertising sales come directly from Instagram and WhatsApp, whether through traditional campaigns or the insertion of immersive formats like stories or Reels. Digital marketing professionals, meanwhile, exploit this centralized environment to reach clearly defined segments, optimize their presence or launch customized influencer operations. To better understand the current situation, it's interesting to look at a numerical summary of the weight of Instagram and WhatsApp within Meta:
| Platform | Number of active users (2025) | Estimated share of advertising sales | Strategic functions |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 billion | 38 % | Engagement, influencer marketing, e-commerce | |
| 3 billion | 27 % | Messaging, mass communication, customer automation | |
| Meta (excluding Instagram and WhatsApp) | 2.8 billion (FB, Messenger, others) | 35 % | Classic advertising, large audience, diversified services |
The complementary nature of Instagram and WhatsApp provides Meta with a powerful barrier to entry, protecting the company from competing attempts. What's more, the tight integration between the group's different platforms has made user migration to a third-party platform less fluid, favoring the retention and exploitation of data on a massive scale.
Analysts believe that the momentum gained since the integration of these giants offers Meta unprecedented commercial resilience. Yet this same strength is now being transformed into a legal and political risk factor. The company, once a pioneer of American innovation, is now being criticized for jeopardizing competitive diversity and consumer protection. This criticism comes at a time when American regulators are stepping up their pressure on the big platforms: the entry into force of new antitrust laws and the growing desire to protect young users, as discussed in this article on regulating teenage accountsare just the beginning.
These circumstances, and the strategic importance of WhatsApp and Instagram in the Meta model, provide the ideal backdrop for understanding the gravity of the situation that lies ahead. They also serve as a reminder that, in an ultra-connected ecosystem, the loss of a leader could unbalance the entire market in cascade, affecting creators, agencies and small advertisers alike, who depend on these platforms daily for their visibility.
The importance of these two poles of the digital industry transforms the slightest legal flaw into a center of gravity for the entire sector. It is against this backdrop that the frenzy of debate surrounding this trial must be read. Over and above Meta's fortunes, an entire economic and social balance could be upset if the courts were to rule in favor of a forced separation.
Legal factors and political pressure: Why does Meta really risk losing WhatsApp and Instagram?
The Federal Trade Commission's lawsuit against Meta is the culmination of several years of growing tensions between digital giants and US regulators. The case is based on a fundamental accusation: that Meta has adopted a predatory approach by acquiring Instagram and WhatsApp in order to neutralize emerging competition, thereby forging a near-monopoly position in the global social networking market.
In 2025, the regulatory environment is particularly tense for major tech companies. Several indicators tend to prove the strength of the regulators' case:
- Historical buybacks Instagram (2012, $1 billion) and WhatsApp (2014, $19 billion) were seen as major threats to Facebook at the time, according to internal documents revealed at the trial.
- Strategic internal communication One of the key emails states that Mark Zuckerberg preferred to "buy rather than compete", an essential argument for the FTC.
- Massive network effect Meta platform integration has stifled the ability of new entrants to break through, as demonstrated by the stagnation or disappearance of alternative services such as Vine or Kik Messenger.
- Tougher antitrust regulations U.S. antimonopoly laws are evolving to adapt to digital realities, and the FTC is stepping up its actions against similar groups (e.g. proceedings opened against Google in 2024).
The lawsuit highlights these elements in an attempt to obtain the separation of WhatsApp and Instagram from parent company Meta. The stakes are high, as such a precedent would pave the way for accelerated fragmentation of the major platforms should other similar lawsuits follow suit.
| Risk factor | Description | Potential consequences |
|---|---|---|
| Antitrust legislation | Application extended to digital acquisitions from 2023 | Increasing number of lawsuits and transfer obligations |
| Internal evidence | Emails and strategy memos on wiping out the competition | Increased risk of heavy penalties, tarnished image |
| Political pressure | Fluctuating alliances, growing party influence | Interfering judicial decisions, regulatory uncertainty |
| Citizen mobilization | Public demand for "digital justice" relayed | Credibility of institutions at stake, expectations of strong measures |
Politically, Meta benefits from strategic alliances that have an indirect but decisive impact. Mark Zuckerberg has drawn closer to North American conservative circles, adapting his platforms' moderation policies to meet certain partisan imperatives. This rapprochement is influencing public debate and could, according to some analysts, influence the interpretation of facts by the competent authorities, slowing down, bending or even cancelling certain sanctions.
The company also argues that these acquisitions have accelerated innovation and brought more value to users. Meta's executives claim that the entire industry now benefits from more secure, interconnected and powerful ecosystems, thanks in particular to the convergence of technological development, the integration of AI solutions or advertising synergies. This vision brings into tension two conceptions of "good" regulation: that which protects pure competition and that which values overall efficiency.
The battle is being waged both in the courts and in the court of public opinion, where media campaigns and lobbying work hand in hand. Moreover, there is intense communication on the subject of responsible innovation, with, for example, the promotion of connected glasses or the massive investment in artificial intelligence. These arguments are designed not only to reassure investors, but also to convince them that weakening Meta would be detrimental to the sector's overall momentum.
However, the final decision will have to address the question of the crowding-out effect on competition. Specialists are considering several scenarios:
- Partial demerger with commercial agreements maintained between demerged entities
- Full sale of subsidiaries to outside players
- New interoperability rules imposed on Meta and its former subsidiaries
Each option would have major repercussions, helping to shape a new landscape. social media evolving and unpredictable.
Ultimately, the possible loss of Instagram and WhatsApp epitomizes the rise of political and citizen activism around major digital players. This crisis is also a reminder that public trust and corporate image are resources as decisive as the technology itself. The next section looks at the likely shockwaves for users, brands and financial markets, if Meta were indeed to sell off its two flagships.
The consequences of a loss of WhatsApp and Instagram for Meta, users and the market
The hypothesis of a forced demerger of Meta would have a profound and transversal impact on the entire digital chain. The most striking effects would be felt immediately by user communities, digital marketing companies and, of course, the group's stock market valuation. To decipher these consequences, we need to analyze each link in the network.
For usersThe sudden migration to other platforms would be inevitable. Deprived of the synergies between Instagram, WhatsApp and Facebook, social habits would be altered. Inter-app contacts, the fluidity of crossed stories and the automation of notifications would suffer an abrupt slowdown. Some users might turn to alternatives such as Telegram, Signal or TikTok, triggering a fragmentation of the social media market rarely seen on such a scale.
- Risk of losing consolidated personal or professional networks
- Emergence of new messaging and social sharing standards
- Extra administrative procedures for account recovery or migration
The experience of a fictitious agency - DrivSocial - which manages campaigns for 80 SMEs, illustrates the challenge. In the event of a loss of API access between Instagram and Facebook, DrivSocial would have to reinvest 60 % of its time in redefining strategies, while 40 % of its customers would require increased monitoring of the emergence of new networks. Widespread disorganization would first affect intensive sectors such as fashion, beauty or gastronomy, which are particularly dependent on influencer marketing.
| Public | Direct consequence | Adaptation example |
|---|---|---|
| Individual users | Loss of synchronized access, fragmentation of contacts | Open accounts on Telegram, Signal, TikTok |
| Brands & agencies | Modification of marketing campaigns, reduced data management | Deployment on emerging platforms, refocusing on e-mailing |
| Investors | Decline in Meta share price, increased volatility in the sector | Deferring investments, diversifying into other tech stocks |
Financial marketsSuch an event would cause an immediate shockwave. Meta's stock market valuation, already subject to significant fluctuations, would depreciate by 20 to 30 %, depending on market confidence in the company's ability to redeploy its activities. Competitors such as Alphabet (owner of YouTube), Snap Inc. and ByteDance (TikTok) would benefit from this reshuffling of the cards, by taking over some of the neglected advertising markets.
Expertise on the advertising dominance of Meta and Instagram points out that without these two pillars, Meta would have to reinvent its monetization models. For investors, regulatory uncertainty would become a major risk factor when arbitraging technology portfolios.
For brands and advertisersThe need to adjust to a new ecosystem would require an in-depth rethink of digital strategies. Multi-channel campaigns, user data management and advertising ROI measurement would have to be rethought. Certain brands, more reactive, could take advantage of the visibility offered by alternative networks that are not yet saturated.
- Higher acquisition costs due to reorganized targeting
- Difficulty tracking the scope and commitment of influence operations
- Rise of new digital intermediaries or brokers
In this context, constant monitoring and the ability to analyze technological evolutions become differentiating assets. Digital marketing professionals are redoubling their efforts to ensure the resilience of their strategies: they are equipping themselves with monitoring tools and calling on industry experts, as demonstrated by the performance of ValueYourNetwork, which accompanies brands through complex market transitions and ensures the success of their social campaigns despite the prevailing uncertainty.
So, if the scenario of a private Meta for WhatsApp and Instagram were to come true, it would inaugurate a new act in global technological competitiveness, upsetting the hierarchical positioning established over a decade ago. Preparing for this future, by anticipating the dispersion of audiences and the emergence of new leaders, is the keystone for all players invested in social media.
In this shifting context, ValueYourNetwork, backed by its experience and hundreds of campaigns carried out since 2016, is positioned as an essential partner to support brands and influencers. Thanks to its in-depth expertise in digital strategy and its ability to effectively connect creators and companies, ValueYourNetwork remains the benchmark for serenely navigating today's upheavals. To build tomorrow's influence together, contact us today.
FAQ - Meta, loss of Instagram and WhatsApp: everything you need to know about the risks and consequences
Why would the loss of WhatsApp and Instagram be a turning point for Meta?
The loss of WhatsApp and Instagram would represent a major upheaval for Meta, as these two platforms generate over 60 % of its advertising revenues and concentrate the bulk of its user engagement. Without them, Meta would have to completely rethink its business strategy and profitability.
What factors could lead to the separation of Meta, WhatsApp and Instagram?
Major factors include regulatory pressure from antitrust laws, internal evidence revealing a desire to neutralize competition, and a growing demand from authorities to break Meta's dominance of the social networking market. U.S. political developments are also influencing future court decisions.
What would be the immediate consequences for users if WhatsApp and Instagram were to exit Meta?
Immediately, users could lose the fluidity of cross-platform connections, see their contacts fragmented and be prompted to migrate to other applications, leading to a heavy adaptation of their social and digital habits.
How should brands and influencers adapt their digital strategies should Meta lose WhatsApp and Instagram?
Brands should diversify their presence across multiple networks, reinvest in emailing or blogging, and work closely with specialists capable of optimizing their operations on emerging platforms. The challenge will be to reallocate budgets and find new sources of engagement.
Which competitors could benefit from Meta's possible loss of WhatsApp and Instagram?
Platforms such as TikTok, Telegram, Signal and YouTube could quickly reclaim a significant share of the audience, taking advantage of the temporary void left by Meta to expand their user base and develop new advertising products.
Would influencer marketing remain as effective without Instagram and WhatsApp?
Influencer marketing would be profoundly impacted, but would remain relevant on other fast-growing networks. Brands should refine their methods and explore more influence on apps like TikTok, Snapchat or newcomers.
Should users worry about their personal data in the event of a split?
A separation could complicate data management, as privacy policies would change rapidly. Users will need to remain vigilant about the new rules of each service, and favor options offering the greatest transparency.
Can Meta bounce back if it loses Instagram and WhatsApp?
Meta still owns important assets, such as Facebook and Messenger, and has solid projects in AI and augmented reality. Although the loss would be significant, Meta could reposition itself in other segments, provided it innovates quickly.
What steps can digital professionals take to anticipate this scenario?
They should diversify their tools, strengthen their watch on emerging trends, adapt their content to be multiplatform and establish partnerships with industry experts, such as ValueYourNetwork, to anticipate changes.